Bitcoin Thrives Against All Odds

Since it’s currently en vogue right now, I’d like to announce that I’m launching my own cryptocurrency next week.

Let’s call it “kingcoin.”

Nah, that’s too self-serving.

How about “muttcoin”? I’ve always had a soft spot for mixed breeds.

Yeah, that’s perfect – everybody loves dogs.

This is going to be the biggest thing since fidget spinners.

Congrats! Everyone reading this is going to receive one muttcoin when my new coin launches next week.

I’m going to evenly distribute 1 million muttcoins. Feel free to spend them wherever you like (or wherever anyone will accept them!).

What’s that? The cashier at Target said they wouldn’t accept our muttcoin?

Tell those doubters that muttcoin has scarcity value – there will only ever be 1 million muttcoins in existence. On top of that, it’s backed by the full faith and credit of my desktop computer’s 8 GB of RAM.

Also, remind them that a decade ago, a bitcoin couldn’t even buy you a pack of chewing gum. Now one bitcoin can buy a lifetime supply.

And, like bitcoin, you can store muttcoin safely offline away from hackers and thieves.

It’s basically an exact replica of bitcoin’s properties. Muttcoin has a decentralized ledger with impossible-to-crack cryptography, and all transactions are immutable.

Still not convinced our muttcoins will be worth billions in the future?

Well, it’s understandable. The fact is, launching a new cryptocurrency is much harder than it appears, if not downright impossible.

That’s why I believe bitcoin has reached these heights against all odds. And because of its unique user network, it will continue to do so.

Sure, there have been setbacks. But each of these setbacks has eventually resulted in higher prices. The recent 60% plunge will be no different.

The Miracle of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s success rests in its ability to create a global network of users who are either willing to transact with it now or store it for later. Future prices will be determined by the pace that the network grows.

Even in the face of wild price swings, bitcoin adoption continues to grow at an exponential rate. There are now 23 million wallets open globally, chasing 21 million bitcoins. In a few years, the number of wallets can rise to include the 5 billion people on the planet connected to the internet.

Sometimes the new crypto converts’ motivation was speculative; other times they were seeking a store of value away from their own domestic currency. In the last year, new applications such as Coinbase have made it even easier to onboard new users.

If you haven’t noticed, when people buy bitcoin, they talk about it. We all have that friend who bought bitcoin and then wouldn’t shut up about it. Yes, I’m guilty of this – and I’m sure quite a few readers are too.

Perhaps subconsciously, holders become crypto-evangelists since convincing others to buy serves their own self-interest of increasing the value of their holdings.

Bitcoin evangelizing – spreading the good word – is what miraculously led to a price ascent from $0.001 to a recent price of $10,000.

Who could have imagined that its pseudonymous creator, fed up with the global banking oligopoly, launched an intangible digital resource that rivaled the value of the world’s largest currencies in less than a decade?

No religion, political movement or technology has ever witnessed these growth rates. Then again, humanity has never been as connected.

The Idea of Money

Bitcoin started as an idea. To be clear, all money – whether it’s shell money used by primitive islanders, a bar of gold or a U.S. dollar – started as an idea. It’s the idea that a network of users value it equally and would be willing to part with something of equal value for your form of money.

Money has no intrinsic value; its value is purely extrinsic – only what others think it’s worth.

Take a look at the dollar in your pocket – it’s just a fancy piece of paper with a one-eyed pyramid, a stipple portrait and signatures of important people.

In order to be useful, society must view it as a unit of account, and merchants must be willing to accept it as payment for goods and services.

Bitcoin has demonstrated an uncanny ability to reach and connect a network of millions of users.

One bitcoin is only worth what the next person is willing pay for it. But if the network continues to expand at an exponential rate, the limited supply argues that prices can only move in one direction… higher.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s nine-year ascent has been marked with enormous bouts of volatility. Therewas an 85% correction in January 2015, and a few others over 60%, including a colossal 93% drawdown in 2011.

Through each of these corrections, however, the network (as measured by number of wallets) continued to expand at a rapid pace. As some speculators saw their value decimated, new investors on the margin saw value and became buyers.

The abnormal levels of volatility are actually what helped the bitcoin network grow to 23 million users.

Overheated Heating Oil Market

I was fortunate enough to be interviewed for a Wall Street Journal heating oil story last week. The primary question was, “How high can prices soar?” Supplies have tightened up considerably during Mother Nature’s onslaught and another bout of cold weather is hitting us, pushing prices higher yet again. Short-term demand related issues like the ones we’re experiencing now due to the weather are never a reason to jump into a market. My less than sensational outlook on current prices pushed me to the closing section of the article. This week, I’ll expand on the topic by looking at the diesel and heating oil markets and formulating a trading plan for the current setup.

I’ll work from big picture to fine detail in order to provide some context for the current situation. First of all, the fracking boom has fundamentally altered the energy landscape of the United States. We are quickly moving from net consumer towards becoming a net producer in the oil and natural gas markets. This paradigm shift is leading to an energy market structure that places us on the side of selling price spikes that are demand based. In this instance, bad weather has created a temporary increase in heating oil use. The price spike will not hold because we have the capacity to rebuild domestic energy stocks cheaply and rapidly.

The same bout of weather is responsible for driving heating oil costs to record levels in the Northeast where more than 80% of all heating oil is consumed. The flip side is that this same weather pattern is keeping people indoors. People staying inside only create heating oil demand. People in normal conditions add to diesel demand through their purchases of goods and services while they’re out and about spending money. Therefore, the net balance of the broader term market shifts towards a bearish supply issue as diesel fueled trucks have less to deliver and fewer miles to cover as citizens remain toasty and warm in their homes instead of out shopping and eating.

The domestic energy market can control supply but has little control over demand except at extremely high prices. Energy production costs are fairly fixed. The primary variable in an energy producer’s arsenal is capping low yielding wells. Prices as a trend however are falling in general as the current processes become more efficient in their cost of execution. Therefore, over time, energy prices should generally decline. Furthermore, energy producers in times of price spikes will sell as much of their expected forward production as possible at these higher prices. This allows energy producers to slow down price spikes through their implementation of profitable short hedges at unsustainable current market prices.

The best way to view these actions is by comparing spread prices to Commitment of Traders data. Spread prices allow you to compare the current market price against a forward price. Current prices or the cash, “spot” markets are the most volatile as they are the most susceptible to short-term supply and demand disruptions. Forward prices are more predictable due the amount of time left to factor in risk variables. Typically, these risk variables include physical storage, insurance costs and interest rates. This leads to forward contracts being priced structurally higher the farther out one looks. This is normal market behavior and the gradually elevated price along the timeline is called, “contango.” Conversely, in times of drama the spot price can overshoot the prices of the deferred contracts. This situation is called, “backwardation.” Backwardation is the market’s incentive to get producers to sell the physical product at the currently elevated price.

Drilling into the details, (pun intended) we can see that there’s definitely a premium in the delivery month futures contract. Knowing that this pricing structure is temporary along with the weather I’m going to let this entire rally pass. There are two reasons I think there’s a better place to buy. First of all, the heating oil market is nearing solid resistance on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Secondly, I expect the demand numbers along with the general economic numbers for the next month to be dismal. This will lead to a selloff and drop the market under $3 per gallon. I expect the market to be supported around there and provide a solid bottom to buy into the spring driving rally. Don’t let the hype suck you in.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Commodity & Derivative Advisors and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Commodity & Derivative Advisors’ Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

The Significance of Thematic Investing

Index Services are dominating the investment markets from quite a long time by now. People who have the preference for diversity when it comes to investment are venturing towards the Thematic Investing. Here is the highlight on the significance of thematic investing.

It is an intuitive investing

This implies that instead of venturing into something unknown you can invest your hard earned money into the ideas as well as the trends that you are fully familiar with and the ones that you find exciting. Having a good knowledge about the same can provide you the capability of making the smart investment choice. As you go in for researching on your own this further makes your position comparatively strong. It further enhances your ability so as to customize your portfolio. You can invest in areas that interest you such as real estate, travel and healthcare.

You can align your values

Here you get the opportunity to be able to align the values that you think are important for you when it comes to your investment. You can simply invest in areas for which you hold the passion or the ones that are primarily focused on the social responsibility. You can simply make the world a better place to live with the help of your investment.

You have a vast choice

There are companies that give you the portfolio well prepared in advance if you so desire. On the contrary, you have the option to create a portfolio for yourself. There is a plethora of option of mutual funds that are available to you as an investor.

Helps to generate alpha

Thematic investing is the best way to get the opportunity for to generate alpha. By imply focusing you’re your investments in the hot spots where you can distribute the sizeable amount of your capital, you can easily generate the alpha. By simply analysing the other portfolios you can come at a decision for yourself.

Gives you flexibility and transparency

By simply creating your own portfolios you open up the gateways to great opportunities. Being able to customize your portfolio is a great advantage in itself. All that you need is to have a great visibility as well as control in addition to the transparency with no hidden cost. You get the clarity of your fractional share as well as the penny.

It is easy to access

Gone are the days when only a limited number of people had an access to the thematic investing due to the fact that the portfolio structures were not only expensive but at the same time restrictive as well as complex that consumed a lot of time for their maintenance. Most of these were available to high net worth investors. Today such is not the case as it has gained popularity, and become accessible for investors f all the brackets.

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