Protecting Stock Market Gains

This is the third cautionary report I’ve written on the stock market in six weeks. The last time I focused this heavily on the stock market was in early 2009. Back then, I was making a point to everyone who’d lost their shirt on the way down that employing the leverage provided by stock index futures contracts would be a great way to recoup some of their lost funds when the market bounced. This week, we’ll discuss the same strategy only in reverse. I’ll explain how to use leveraged futures to protect your equity portfolio ahead of time in case you haven’t taken the appropriate actions.

Everything that I’ve written over the past several weeks regarding the stock market still holds true. Quoting from our December 5th article, “… we have reached valuations that bode poorly for long term investing. Research abounds on the usefulness of long-term valuation models. Very simply, expecting these returns to continue through long-term investment at these valuations would set an historical precedence. Anything can happen in the world of markets but the odds clearly show that bull markets do not begin when the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is above 15. The S&P 500’s P/E ratio currently stands above 19 and Nobel Prize winning Yale economist Robert Schiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio is over 25. Both of these will continue higher as long as the equity markets continue to climb. Neither is sounding the, “Everyone to cash,” alarm bell. Their history simply suggests that it would be foolish to expect these multiples to continue to climb and climbing P/E ratios are necessary for stock market growth.”

Coincidentally, the market is trading exactly where it was when I wrote that and after Friday the 24th’s action, we are in fact sounding an alarm bell. Friday’s action sounded a technical alarm based on the 90/90 rule. In short, 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 closed lower for the day and 90% of the volume was on the downside. This analysis was originally publicized by Lowry’s Reports in 1975 and has been appropriately updated over time. The general market response is for an upward blip for a few days to a week followed by continuation of the selloff. This typically signals a momentum swing and could very well be the catalyst that brings the market back in line with long-term valuations.

The single most common phrase I hear for peoples’ failure to take protective measures for their portfolio is, “I don’t want to pay taxes on anything I have to sell.” The key to using stock index futures as a hedge against your portfolio falling with the broader market is the cash advantage that allows their low margins and high leverage to be put to work for you. The e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is one of the most liquid markets in the world. The face value of the contract is $50 multiplied by the index price, currently 1777.00. Thus the contract is worth $88,500. The margin, which is the amount of money the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) needs on deposit to carry every contract from every market participant is currently $4,510. Both the buyer and the seller of the contract place this amount with the CME. This leaves a margin to equity ratio of approximately ten to one ($88,500/$9,020).

Here’s how it plays out in real terms. First of all, customers need more than the minimum margin requirement to trade. Otherwise, the first day the market closed above the initial entry price, the customer would be issued a margin call by the clearinghouse to make up the difference. Therefore, I suggest allocating enough capital for the minimum margin plus enough additional cash to cover general market fluctuation or, to a point that the trade becomes invalid and the hedge should be removed. In this case, I’d use the recent market highs of 1846.50 as a price that would invalidate the hedge’s necessity. The math works out as follows; $4,510 for margin plus $3,475 to allow for market movement from 1777 to the high at 1846.5 equals a necessary beginning cash balance of $7,985. This is the amount that’s needed to hedge $88,500 worth of the S&P 500 Index against further declines.

If we do get the 10% correction that we discussed in our January 16th letter, the cash balance in your futures account will have grown to $13,760. This would offset the loss incurred by your equities account without forcing you out of any positions or, leaving you with any capital gains tax to pay.

Finally, this is one case where a leveraged ETF simply won’t provide the same bang for the buck. There have been many studies that track inverse leveraged ETF’s against the underlying index and the research consistently shows that they fail to capture the same percentage gains on big down days as the futures markets on which the ETF’s are based. This is one of those times when trading and investing are best done via two separate vehicles.

Overheated Heating Oil Market

I was fortunate enough to be interviewed for a Wall Street Journal heating oil story last week. The primary question was, “How high can prices soar?” Supplies have tightened up considerably during Mother Nature’s onslaught and another bout of cold weather is hitting us, pushing prices higher yet again. Short-term demand related issues like the ones we’re experiencing now due to the weather are never a reason to jump into a market. My less than sensational outlook on current prices pushed me to the closing section of the article. This week, I’ll expand on the topic by looking at the diesel and heating oil markets and formulating a trading plan for the current setup.

I’ll work from big picture to fine detail in order to provide some context for the current situation. First of all, the fracking boom has fundamentally altered the energy landscape of the United States. We are quickly moving from net consumer towards becoming a net producer in the oil and natural gas markets. This paradigm shift is leading to an energy market structure that places us on the side of selling price spikes that are demand based. In this instance, bad weather has created a temporary increase in heating oil use. The price spike will not hold because we have the capacity to rebuild domestic energy stocks cheaply and rapidly.

The same bout of weather is responsible for driving heating oil costs to record levels in the Northeast where more than 80% of all heating oil is consumed. The flip side is that this same weather pattern is keeping people indoors. People staying inside only create heating oil demand. People in normal conditions add to diesel demand through their purchases of goods and services while they’re out and about spending money. Therefore, the net balance of the broader term market shifts towards a bearish supply issue as diesel fueled trucks have less to deliver and fewer miles to cover as citizens remain toasty and warm in their homes instead of out shopping and eating.

The domestic energy market can control supply but has little control over demand except at extremely high prices. Energy production costs are fairly fixed. The primary variable in an energy producer’s arsenal is capping low yielding wells. Prices as a trend however are falling in general as the current processes become more efficient in their cost of execution. Therefore, over time, energy prices should generally decline. Furthermore, energy producers in times of price spikes will sell as much of their expected forward production as possible at these higher prices. This allows energy producers to slow down price spikes through their implementation of profitable short hedges at unsustainable current market prices.

The best way to view these actions is by comparing spread prices to Commitment of Traders data. Spread prices allow you to compare the current market price against a forward price. Current prices or the cash, “spot” markets are the most volatile as they are the most susceptible to short-term supply and demand disruptions. Forward prices are more predictable due the amount of time left to factor in risk variables. Typically, these risk variables include physical storage, insurance costs and interest rates. This leads to forward contracts being priced structurally higher the farther out one looks. This is normal market behavior and the gradually elevated price along the timeline is called, “contango.” Conversely, in times of drama the spot price can overshoot the prices of the deferred contracts. This situation is called, “backwardation.” Backwardation is the market’s incentive to get producers to sell the physical product at the currently elevated price.

Drilling into the details, (pun intended) we can see that there’s definitely a premium in the delivery month futures contract. Knowing that this pricing structure is temporary along with the weather I’m going to let this entire rally pass. There are two reasons I think there’s a better place to buy. First of all, the heating oil market is nearing solid resistance on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Secondly, I expect the demand numbers along with the general economic numbers for the next month to be dismal. This will lead to a selloff and drop the market under $3 per gallon. I expect the market to be supported around there and provide a solid bottom to buy into the spring driving rally. Don’t let the hype suck you in.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Commodity & Derivative Advisors and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Commodity & Derivative Advisors’ Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Bitcoin Thrives Against All Odds

Since it’s currently en vogue right now, I’d like to announce that I’m launching my own cryptocurrency next week.

Let’s call it “kingcoin.”

Nah, that’s too self-serving.

How about “muttcoin”? I’ve always had a soft spot for mixed breeds.

Yeah, that’s perfect – everybody loves dogs.

This is going to be the biggest thing since fidget spinners.

Congrats! Everyone reading this is going to receive one muttcoin when my new coin launches next week.

I’m going to evenly distribute 1 million muttcoins. Feel free to spend them wherever you like (or wherever anyone will accept them!).

What’s that? The cashier at Target said they wouldn’t accept our muttcoin?

Tell those doubters that muttcoin has scarcity value – there will only ever be 1 million muttcoins in existence. On top of that, it’s backed by the full faith and credit of my desktop computer’s 8 GB of RAM.

Also, remind them that a decade ago, a bitcoin couldn’t even buy you a pack of chewing gum. Now one bitcoin can buy a lifetime supply.

And, like bitcoin, you can store muttcoin safely offline away from hackers and thieves.

It’s basically an exact replica of bitcoin’s properties. Muttcoin has a decentralized ledger with impossible-to-crack cryptography, and all transactions are immutable.

Still not convinced our muttcoins will be worth billions in the future?

Well, it’s understandable. The fact is, launching a new cryptocurrency is much harder than it appears, if not downright impossible.

That’s why I believe bitcoin has reached these heights against all odds. And because of its unique user network, it will continue to do so.

Sure, there have been setbacks. But each of these setbacks has eventually resulted in higher prices. The recent 60% plunge will be no different.

The Miracle of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s success rests in its ability to create a global network of users who are either willing to transact with it now or store it for later. Future prices will be determined by the pace that the network grows.

Even in the face of wild price swings, bitcoin adoption continues to grow at an exponential rate. There are now 23 million wallets open globally, chasing 21 million bitcoins. In a few years, the number of wallets can rise to include the 5 billion people on the planet connected to the internet.

Sometimes the new crypto converts’ motivation was speculative; other times they were seeking a store of value away from their own domestic currency. In the last year, new applications such as Coinbase have made it even easier to onboard new users.

If you haven’t noticed, when people buy bitcoin, they talk about it. We all have that friend who bought bitcoin and then wouldn’t shut up about it. Yes, I’m guilty of this – and I’m sure quite a few readers are too.

Perhaps subconsciously, holders become crypto-evangelists since convincing others to buy serves their own self-interest of increasing the value of their holdings.

Bitcoin evangelizing – spreading the good word – is what miraculously led to a price ascent from $0.001 to a recent price of $10,000.

Who could have imagined that its pseudonymous creator, fed up with the global banking oligopoly, launched an intangible digital resource that rivaled the value of the world’s largest currencies in less than a decade?

No religion, political movement or technology has ever witnessed these growth rates. Then again, humanity has never been as connected.

The Idea of Money

Bitcoin started as an idea. To be clear, all money – whether it’s shell money used by primitive islanders, a bar of gold or a U.S. dollar – started as an idea. It’s the idea that a network of users value it equally and would be willing to part with something of equal value for your form of money.

Money has no intrinsic value; its value is purely extrinsic – only what others think it’s worth.

Take a look at the dollar in your pocket – it’s just a fancy piece of paper with a one-eyed pyramid, a stipple portrait and signatures of important people.

In order to be useful, society must view it as a unit of account, and merchants must be willing to accept it as payment for goods and services.

Bitcoin has demonstrated an uncanny ability to reach and connect a network of millions of users.

One bitcoin is only worth what the next person is willing pay for it. But if the network continues to expand at an exponential rate, the limited supply argues that prices can only move in one direction… higher.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s nine-year ascent has been marked with enormous bouts of volatility. Therewas an 85% correction in January 2015, and a few others over 60%, including a colossal 93% drawdown in 2011.

Through each of these corrections, however, the network (as measured by number of wallets) continued to expand at a rapid pace. As some speculators saw their value decimated, new investors on the margin saw value and became buyers.

The abnormal levels of volatility are actually what helped the bitcoin network grow to 23 million users.

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